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daveguth
Daveguth  (Level: 254.4 - Posts: 1636)
Sat, 6th Mar '10 5:07 PM

OSCAR PREDICTIONS

Last year there was a Sploofus contest for predicting the Oscars, but it looks like it won't happen this year. Oh well.

That doesn't mean we can't do it just for fun. So here are my predictions. If anyone else wants to throw out their predictions, I'll count the number right and announce a "winner" after the show.

Actor - Jeff Bridges
Supporting Actor- That famous Austrian actor Christophe Waltz
Actress - Sandra Bullock
Supporting Actress - Mo'Nique
Animated Film - Up
Art Direction - Avatar
Cinematography - The Hurt Locker
Costume Design - Young Victoria
Directing - Kathryn (not Katharine) Bigelow (from Hurt Locker)
Documentary- The Cove
Doc Short - China's Unnatural Disaster
Film Editing - The Hurt Locker
Foreign Language Film - El Secreto de Sus Ojos
Makeup - Star Trek
Original Score - Up
Original Song - The Weary Kind (from Crazy Heart)
Short Animated Film - A Matter of Loaf and Death
Short Live - Kavi
Sound Editing - Avatar
Sound Mixing - Avatar
Visual Effects - Avatar
Adapted Screenplay - Up in the Air
Original Screenplay - Inglourious Basterds
Picture - The Hurt Locker


slicko
Slicko  (Level: 223.9 - Posts: 1609)
Sat, 6th Mar '10 6:29 PM

Far be it from me to question your picks Dave - I think you have got these down and agree with you on everything except perhaps animated short, simply because that one is never the one we think it's going to be.

slicko
Slicko  (Level: 223.9 - Posts: 1609)
Sat, 6th Mar '10 6:32 PM

On second thought I think you even have that one right this time Dave - I'm betting on a clean sweep for you.

lamizell
Lamizell  (Level: 108.2 - Posts: 441)
Sat, 6th Mar '10 6:38 PM

But who can vote against Wallace & Gromit?

I'm going with *White Ribbon* for Foreign Film, and I think it's a duel to the death for Adapted Screenplay with *The Hurt Locker.* It might depend on how many people got their ballots in before this past week's backlash began.


alvandy
Alvandy  (Level: 229.7 - Posts: 7573)
Sat, 6th Mar '10 8:51 PM

I also agree with Dave and predict an upset for Best Picture- "The Hurt Locker" wins out over "Avatar".
That's an "actors" film and most Academy voters are actors- not directors.
"Avatar" will win a lot of other awards along the way.

clevercloggs
Clevercloggs  (Level: 27.4 - Posts: 1246)
Sun, 7th Mar '10 4:13 AM

Some overpaid bint in half a posh frock will start start bawling her eyes out.

allena
Allena  (Level: 256.0 - Posts: 1393)
Sun, 7th Mar '10 10:17 AM

Allena is playing. The * denotes those different from Daveguth

Actor - Jeff Bridges
Supporting Actor- Christophe Waltz
Actress - Sandra Bullock
Supporting Actress - Mo'Nique
Animated Film - Up
Art Direction - Avatar
Cinematography - Avatar*
Costume Design - Young Victoria
Directing - Kathryn Bigelow
Documentary- The Cove
Doc Short - The Last Truck: Closing of a GM Plant*
Film Editing - Avatar*
Foreign Language Film - The White Ribbon*
Makeup - Star Trek
Original Score - Up
Original Song - The Weary Kind (from Crazy Heart)
Short Animated Film - A Matter of Loaf and Death
Short Live - Kavi
Sound Editing - Avatar
Sound Mixing - Avatar
Visual Effects - Avatar
Adapted Screenplay - Up in the Air
Original Screenplay - Hurt Locker*
Picture - Avatar*

slicko
Slicko  (Level: 223.9 - Posts: 1609)
Sun, 7th Mar '10 1:36 PM

Oops missed Dave's call on Cinematography - I think Jim's right on the one - going with Avatar.

daveguth
Daveguth  (Level: 254.4 - Posts: 1636)
Sun, 7th Mar '10 2:05 PM

Leslie, Jim, and Gary are doing an excellent job of identifying all the real close calls (and the shakiest of my predictions). Yeah, Original Screenplay, Cinematography, and Foreign Film could each go either way. In fact, I could see any of Jim's alternatives winning. Watch for Film Editing--that may decide which film gets Best Picture.

You can add to the close calls:

Actress--Don't completely count out Meryl--there are plenty of folks who want to get her another win after so many years--and there's a little backlash about Bullock's film--a Disneyfied version of the actual story.

Live Short--Usually the toughest call--surprised we're each in agreement on this one. The Door has a real shot. Or anything else--I get this one right about once a decade.

Sound Editing and Mixing--Very unpredictable categories--often split with the "big bang" film getting Editing. But which has a bigger bang--Avatar or Hurt Locker?

And just curious--is anybody looking in on this thread to keep help with today's WP?

lamizell
Lamizell  (Level: 108.2 - Posts: 441)
Mon, 8th Mar '10 1:33 AM

I'm so relieved *The Hurt Locker* won out over *Avatar.* I'm sure Cameron, poor guy, will be able to fill the empty spot on his shelves with stacks of thousand-dollar bills.

daveguth
Daveguth  (Level: 254.4 - Posts: 1636)
Mon, 8th Mar '10 1:36 AM

Ouch, tough year to predict. No upsets among the acting awards, but I managed to miss ALL of the shorts and the two sound awards. Those five categories kill me every year.

Looks like Slicko is the winner (again!). I had 16 right, and he won the only one we differed on--Cinematography. Allena and Lamizell also had 16 correct. So close contest for the small number that participated. (I guess more folks participate when there's a prize on the line.)

slicko
Slicko  (Level: 223.9 - Posts: 1609)
Mon, 8th Mar '10 6:43 AM

I was stunned by the adapted screenplay award. Did not see Precious so perhaps at a disadvantage, but I thought Up in the Air had one of the best scripts in many years. Shoulda stuck to my guns with the animated one too and picked the wierdest one.

felix
Felix  (Level: 109.3 - Posts: 2500)
Mon, 8th Mar '10 9:38 AM

I'm gonna go with The Hurt Locker as the big winner. Let me know.

allena
Allena  (Level: 256.0 - Posts: 1393)
Mon, 8th Mar '10 10:02 AM

Editing of Hurt Locker (sound and film) really impressed the judges. I can not imagine a harder film to have edited than Avatar but then I do not not have any experience. I guess the Academy voters think computers are automatic.

daveguth
Daveguth  (Level: 254.4 - Posts: 1636)
Mon, 8th Mar '10 11:55 AM

The one I'm still scratching my head about is Cinematography for Avatar. How much of all that was actual "camerawork," as opposed to CGI effects? The entire film was filmed indoors in front of green screens. Lighting, camera movement, et al were not really factors for most of the movie, i.e., most of that stuff was created in post-production. I think Avatar very deservedly won Special Effects and Art Direction, but I think there's more than one cinematographer who's a little disgusted by this win.

And yeah, I agree about Up in the Air losing Adapted Screenplay. Precious had an excellent screenplay, but Up in the Air was tremendous. And I felt the same way about Inglorious Basterds losing to The Hurt Locker for Original Secreenplay.

And then there are the five completely unpredictable shorts and sound awards. The Logorama thing must have been pretty good to beat out Wallace and Grommit.

lamizell
Lamizell  (Level: 108.2 - Posts: 441)
Mon, 8th Mar '10 6:38 PM

I would say the actual history in *The Hurt Locker* by someone who was embedded with the troops won out over revisionist history. And I'd hazard a guess that "Logorama" appealed to the home crowd since it's all about Los Angeles.


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